Baylor (15-8) takes on the best team in the Big 12 tonight at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at the Fertitta Center in Houston, trying to get back on track after a 4-4 series.
The Cougars, bidding to win March Madness, are a 9-point home favorite, and our Baylor vs. Houston prediction explains why Kelvin Sampson's defense will be too much for the Bears to handle.
Baylor vs Houston predictions for today
College basketball predictions based on odds from our top betting sites for March Madness.
- Against the spread pick: Houston -9 vs. Baylor ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: L.J. Cryer Over 2.5 made 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Baylor vs. Houston ATS Matchup Prediction
Houston will overcome the spread: -9 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Houston has dominated the Big 12 standings except for a setback in last week's matchup with Texas Tech when the Cougars lost in overtime. Sampson's team is 11-1 against conference opponents and 5-1 against the spread as a favorite of less than 12 points in those meetings.
The Cougars' defense has overwhelmed their opponents. The team ranks first in the nation in points per game (57.0) and has only scored more than 68 points twice against Big 12 teams. Houston also ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency. Houston should be able to slow down a Baylor offense that has struggled in conference play.
The Bears are scoring 80 points per game this season, but that number has dropped to 73.6 against Big 12 teams, which ranks eighth in the conference. They also rank ninth in shooting percentage from the field (42.6%) and host a Houston team that ranks second in the country in shooting percentage from the field (37.5%).
The Bears are just 9-12-1 ATS on the season (5-7 in conference) and their defense will have a tough time containing a Houston team that ranks 10th in three-point shooting percentage (39.3%). If the Cogs can cover the hoop, a $10 bet would yield a profit of $8.70.
Best predictions for the match Baylor - Houston
Л. J.J. Cryer - over 2.5 three-point shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Despite Houston's reliance on defense, the team boasts one of the best scorers in the Big 12 in guard L.J. Cryer. Cryer ranks second in the conference in three-pointers made per game (2.8) and three-point shooting percentage (40.3 percent).
Baylor's perimeter defense has also been abysmal at times this season. The Bears rank 266th in three-point shots per game (8.1) and 328th in three-point shooting percentage (36.1 percent). That should cause the Cougars' offense to focus more on 3-point shots in this matchup.
Krier has hit more than three three-pointers in 12 of 23 games this season, including three straight. If he can hit at least three from beyond the arc against Baylor, a $10 bet will yield a $7.41 profit.
Odds for the match Baylor - Houston
- Spread: Baylor +9 (-110) | Houston -9 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 132 (-110) | Under 132 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baylor +325 | Houston -425
Baylor vs. Houston match info
- When: Monday, Feb. 10
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Fertitta Center (Houston)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Houston -9 (-115 via bet365)
